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Exam 18: Forecasting

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Question 31

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In general, which forecasting time frame compensates most effectively for random variation and short-term changes?

A) Short-term forecasts
B) Quick-time forecasts
C) Long-range forecasts
D) Medium-term forecasts
E) Rapid-change forecasts

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Question 32

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Which of the following is the percentage of observations you would expect to see lying within a plus or minus 2 MAD range?

A) 57.04 percent
B) 89.04 percent
C) 98.33 percent
D) 99.86 percent
E) 100.00 percent

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Question 33

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A company hires you to develop a linear regression forecasting model.Based on the company's historical sales information, you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1,200.You also find the slope value is minus 50.If, after developing the model, you are given a value of X = 10, which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

Market research is a quantitative method of forecasting.

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

Experience and trial and error are the simplest ways to choose weights for the weighted moving average forecasting model.

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average.If the company uses four prior yearly sales values , which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 20142017?

Cyclical influences on demand are often expressed graphically as a linear function that is either upward or downward sloping.

Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?

Simple exponential smoothing lags changes in demand.

Which of the following considerations is not a factor in deciding which forecasting model a firm should choose?

The standard error of the estimate of a linear regression is not useful for judging the fit between the data and the regression line when doing forecasts.

If a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be in which of the following ranges?

The equation for exponential smoothing states that the new forecast is equal to the old forecast plus the error of the old forecast.

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230, a related actual demand value of 250, and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500, and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35.Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

Trend lines are usually the last things considered when developing a forecast.